Existing data
The research on bus drivers' accidents and driving style continues. Through the years, lots of data and questions have piled up. Below is presented the research on existing data that will be done when, and if, time and funding is available. Some of these data and/or topics could also be workable for students.
Accidents - sex, age, ethnic origin and exposure
The data available in the database on bus accidents in Uppsala makes it possible to do calculations on the risks of having an accident due to such variables as sex, age and exposure. Although such studies are rather commonplace, some features make these data rather interesting. First, the accident data are more valid than most other available data, notably self-reported and police records. Secondly, the exposure data (hours worked) are more exact than the more commonly used mileage. Finally, the great differences in starting age for bus drivers make it possible to separate experience from age.
Out of these data come, not only the usual correlations of accidents with sex, age and exposure, but a regression equation where the effects of the different variables can be disentangled. The main interest here is whether it is possible to replicate the common findings of studies on car drivers regarding these variables, or if this population seem to differ.
Celeration behavior and accidents
If you have read the papers on celeration behavior, you will know that a lot of work remain concerning the testing of predictions from theory. A large amount of celeration data is available from the EcoDriving training evaluation project (see Sparsam körning), which can be used for this work. Also, replications of these studies in other populations are needed.
Effects of accidents upon driving behavior
Rather little research has been undertaken on how drivers react to accident involvement, and none seem to have measured actual behavior. Instead, retrospective reports have been used. The available celeration data can be used for this kind of investigation too, as any change of behavior should be evident on this variable.
Further areas of interest
Many questions have arisen during the earlier studies on bus drivers, mainly of a methodological nature. Some of these need to answered before it is possible to make definitive general statements concerning, for example, the driver celeration behavior studies.
The relation of the Big Five personality factors to accident frequency: Being one of the newcomers in the study of personality, the Big Five Inventory has not been used in many studies on accident prediction. This is a fairly simple study, given that a reliable database is already in existence for the bus drivers at Gamla Uppsalabuss. What is needed is questionnaire responses from some hundreds of bus drivers.
Differences and similarities in private and professional driving
Studies on professional drivers are not very common. However, when such studies are made, it would seem to be implicitly assumed that driving behavior is not affected by the situation, i.e. it is possible to generalize from professional to private driving. This may be a warranted assumption, but it is not grounded in actual studies. Several ways of studying this question are available, for example driving diaries (which could also be used to check the correctness of questionnaire responses). Some data is also available from the Bus-DBQ questionnaires, which show that bus drivers at least report a rather high correspondence between their frequencies of errors and violations in private and professional driving.
Variability of driving behavior
The concept of variability in driving (celeration behavior) as an important factor in accident causation as well as prediction should be further developed and studied. There are many variables which could be empirically investigated with this different emphasis, new as well as classic ones.
Adaptation of driving behavior to (perceived) altered driving circumstances
There are some studies which show that the safety effects of, for example, anti-lock brakes, are negligable. This may be true also in a more general manner; as vehicles become smoother to drive and noise levels are reduced, this may result in a lessened sense of risk which is not actually warranted by the qualities of the vehicles. Such a hypothesis could be checked by the use of accident data for new and old vehicles, while holding age and economic factors constant. As usual, buses and their drivers are excellent for this kind of calculation.
The relation of specific variables to specific types of crashes
The existing database for bus accidents may be possible to use for the testing of hypotheses about specific behavior or deficiencies (e.g. narrow useful field of view) in relation to the type of crashes the drivers have experienced (e.g in intersections).
Close following and accidents among bus drivers
A few studies have shown an association between close following of car drivers and their crash frequency. It would be interesting to replicate this result in the very different driving environment of bus drivers.
Physical condition, sleep quality and accidents
Few studies have tried to relate people's traffic accidents to their well being in terms of bodily functions. As sleep disorders and poor health (mainly life-style related) are fairly common, this area does look promising.
The traffic conflicts technique
It is now possible, with the help of modern information technology, to do a validation study on traffic conflicts as a predictor of accidents on the level of the individual driver, something which apparently has not been done.
Common method variance in driver inventories
Several of my papers have shown effects in driver questionnaires that are incompatible with the common view of survey instruments as relatively valid research tools. The main problem is the use of self-reported outcome measures. The various common method variance mechanisms need to be tested for all kinds of driver inventories (and the authors do not seem to be willing to do this themselves). This is a rather time-consuming enterprise, as there are dozens of questionnaires being used to study individual differences in accident record for drivers, and none has been validated in an acceptable way.
The use of technical feedback systems to enhance driver safety
Given the celeration research I have undertaken, and the fast technological development, it is now possible to implement and test feedback systems for drivers, where driver behavior is measured and the results fed back to them at various levels and time frames. The results of such systems are expected to be very strong; tens of percent of reduction of accidents and fuel consumption. Some systems that are possible to use for this end are VDI Innovation (Drivec), Vehco and GreenRoad.
